Art

Art

Tuesday, 7 August 2018

2018年7月股票交易记录

已经是8月了,回头看看7月时候,我的股票交易次数基本上是零。无论如何,还是要固定地交代一下。

以下是我这个月简略的交易记录:

买进
~~无~~


卖出
~~无~~


同月份买卖
~~无~~

新资金
目前累积投入资金只有RM380而已(非常小数目)。



每月一言
虽然,我还是看好接下来的股市,但可惜的是我现在无法入场了。这是因为资金已经用完了,也没有多余的钱可以不断地投入。

股票固然是我个人投资最重心的一环,不过也不能够因此而忽略了管理个人及家庭的收入和支出。如果,我因为把所有的储蓄放入股市里,当我需要现金的时候,就非得卖掉一些股票。要是有赚还好,要是亏损的话呢?就非常不值得了。

有留意我每个月份的交易报告的股友,你们有没有发现本人的投资策略有了一些改变?当然,不是在讲那个“顺势而为”策略啦!我已经放弃那个瑕疵的策略了(大家也千万不要使用)。之前,买下来的3只股票。一只已经卖掉套利,其他两只都处在纸上亏损(负10%至30%)的状态。

由于大选后的股市疲弱,我比较崇尚于低买高卖的策略,来投资被抛售的个股。为了日后容易分辨,我将之称为“谷底捡股”策略。这个方法没有什么高深的学问,也不是我自创的(只有名称是我想的),是大家都知道的:股价低时,买入;股价高时,卖出。真的就这么简单。只是不简单的是,如何判断几时才是低、几时才是高?你们不要问我、考我。目前,我只是觉得大马的前景与经济在新政府上台后应该会更好,所以可以趁低吸纳。



Tuesday, 17 July 2018

为我给的贴士负上责任吧!

如果你有阅读投资银行的股票分析报告的话,你是否有去细读报告尾端的责任声明(Disclaimer)呢?

类似的免责声明,你有注意到吗?


或者若你有参考任何投资建议时,你是否有注意到笔者加上的最终注解(Remarks)呢?

就是这句话:“纯属分享;买卖自负”

我们投资者应该都不会感到陌生这些声明。我个人也同意使用。

就像我们这些写部落格的人们,只是纯粹对股票投资感兴趣,所以会做很多研究功课。有时候,也拿出来,跟大家分享一下。没有领取任何俸禄或佣金,也没有带着邪恶的动机。因此,在每一篇分析文章的后面,附上一则免责声明,是无可厚非的,更主要的是可以作为自我保护的法律权利。


我甚少提供买卖建议。不过,去年有一次,自以为自己的眼光很好,对自创的投资法盲目地信心,所以给了好朋友一项股票贴士。这位好友并没有要求我提供,是我自己天真地觉得杠得起股票咨询顾问的角色,不收分文地给他买股的建议。

过后,这只股价却从RM1.46(建议买入价),越跌越低,现在只有RM1.01而已。下跌幅度达到30%这么多。这么烂的股票咨询建议,怎么出得了台面?

当股价刚刚跌了10%时,我还不以为意,认为是暂时性下调;当股价跌了20%时,我开始忐忑不安,忧心起来;当股价终于还是跌了30%时,我最终知道投资失利了。

自己的亏损,也不是第一次了,我还不怎么在意。最煎熬的是,我该如何承担起‘害人亏损’的责任。更甚的是,他还是我的好朋友。我以后要如何面对他呢?

丑妇终须见家翁。我跟这位朋友说起来这件事,才发现他因为一些问题,没有跟随我买入,成功逃过一劫。我终于可以松一口气了,如释重担,压力马上得到释放。

这位好友以后还会不会相信我的建议?我不知道。但是,我不会再随便地提供了。因为我也要为给出的贴士负上莫名庞大的责任。

Thursday, 12 July 2018

LRT3继续跑,GKENT几时飞?

这个星期内,除了顶级手套的收购欺诈案的劲爆新闻以外,另一个我比较关注的新闻就是关于轻快铁LRT3工程的命运了。

从第14届大选结束后,很多大型基建工程(如:隆新高铁、MRT3)都纷纷被搁置。这一系列的政府撙节措施,令到多间上市建筑公司的股票大幅下调。其中一间是GKENT。基于当时我觉得该公司手上的合约(即LRT3)并没有被影响,也应该不会被终止(因为工程已经在进行中了),所以我也趁机在股价大跌时(我认为被低估了)买入了一点。

殊不知,昨天财政部长检讨了LRT3的总成本暴涨许多,因此指示国家基建公司(Prasarana)必须大幅削减。此举令到市场担心工程会被停工,作为工程执行伙伴(PDP)的GKENT马上应声下跌。

才过了一天,今天内阁同意削减工程成本(47%)的提案,正式宣布让LRT3继续建造。这项决定终于扫除了这个工程的不确定性,与我心头最大的忧虑。这个消息确定后,我对之前的投资判断也更有信心,所以还会继续持有GKENT股票。目前为止,我在这项GKENT的投资仍然处于纸上亏损的。

详细的工程成本削减方案可以拜读以下The Star的新闻报导:

Source from The Star Online

KUALA LUMPUR: The Cabinet has given the go-ahead for the continuation of the 37-km long light rail transit  (LRT) 3 project  but the final cost  has been reduced by 47% to RM16.63bil.

Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng said on Thursday the Cabinet gave its approval during the meeting on Wednesday and the final cost will enable Malaysians to save a total of RM15.02bil.


The completion date for the LRT 3, stretching from Johan Setia (Klang) to Bandar Utama (Petaling Jaya), was extended from 2020 to 2024 to further reduce construction cost which was inflated.


The construction of the LRT3 project will be restructured from a project-delivery-partner (PDP) model to a “fixed price contract” with the joint venture of MRCB and George Kent, he said.


“This will ensure that the price will be fixed and will not be subject to cost overruns. The details of this contract will be disclosed at a later stage,” he added.


The savings of more than RM15bil would not only mean a massive reduction of RM15bil in debt to be incurred, but also result in additional savings to the tax-payers of up to RM14bil in interest cost over the period of the loan financing.


“The 47% reduction in cost demonstrates that the new Federal Government is walking the talk in securing significant cost reductions for excessively-priced project caused by the poor governance of the previous government,” said Lim.


“This cost will include all project costs, including but not limited to work package contracts (WPC), land acquisition, project management, consultancy fees, operational and overhead costs, as well as interest during construction,” he said.


To recap, on March 30, 2018, Prasarana submitted the latest projected cost of the LRT3 project which amounted to RM31.65bil. 


At the same time, Prasarana sought an additional financing of RM22bil in the form of government guarantees, on top of the initial RM10bil granted in 2015 to finance the project.


Lim said the LRT3 project is a critical project meant to alleviate the issue of traffic congestion along one of the most important and densely populated economic development corridors in the Klang Valley, from Klang to Petaling Jaya.


The new LRT line is expected to serve a two-million population with the capacity to transport 36,700 passenger per hour each way.


A thorough renegotiation and rationalization exercise of the LRT3 project was undertaken with all key stakeholders including Prasarana, MRCB-GK JV and the Land Public Transportation Commission (SPAD). 


One critical criteria for the review was that the integrity of the 37km LRT3 line must be maintained. In addition, the safety, frequency and quality of service must meet the requirements of the regulators.


Key steps taken to reduce and rationalise project costs include:


(i) Reducing the order of 42 sets of six-car trains to 22 sets of three-car trains. Based on the feasibility study of the LRT3 project, the 22 sets of three-car trains is more than sufficient

to cope with the anticipated passenger demand until the year 2035 before additional three-car trains need to be ordered.

(ii) Reducing the construction size of the LRT train depot due to the significantly reduced number of LRT trains to be acquired.


(iii) Streamlining the size and design of the LRT stations based on Kelana Jaya LRT line standards instead of being benchmarked against the much larger MRT stations.


(iv) Shelving the construction of 5 stations with very low projected passenger ridership until such a time the demand is deemed necessary for these stations to be built. These

provisional stations are Lien Hoe, Temasya, SIRIM, Bukit Raja and Bandar Botanic.

(v) Cancelling an unnecessary 2km tunnel for the LRT together with an underground station at Persiaran Hishamuddin, Shah Alam.


(vi) Extending the timeline to complete the LRT3 project from 2020 to 2024 in order to further reduce construction cost which was inflated due to "acceleration costs" i.e. to

speed up the project incurs additional costs.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/07/12/final-price-of-lrt3-reduced-by-47pct-to-rm16pt63b-says-prasarana/