股灾、黑色星期一和五、千股齐跌

莆踏入8月份，就发生了黑色星期五、黑色星期一、千股齐跌。这次股灾不是专属大马市场而已，连整个亚洲（尤其是日本），甚至是美国股市都是面临狂跌的场面。

大家先冷静下来。来探讨一下究竟是什么因素造成的呢？ 了解了事态的来龙去脉，才决定该如何行动吧。

也许有人已经去看视频，寻找答案。不如也看看报章怎么说？

作为参考、记录，以下是我从财经新闻摘取的：

东方日报：

美国一系列经济数据疲软再次激起对美国经济可能陷入衰退的担忧，隔夜美股3大指数因此暴跌。马股跟随大市走跌，截至上午9时10分，综指下跌10.65点或0.66%，暂报1613.60点。

美国ISM制造业连续4个月收缩、上周初请失业金人数飙升近一年新高，市场担忧美国经济衰退。隔夜美股3大指数均走跌，其中那斯达克指数下跌2.30%，道琼斯指数和标普500指数亦跌超1%。

亚洲股市亦受累走跌，日经指数今日早盘暴跌1961.60点或5.12%；韩国指数则下跌2.83%。


南洋商报：

由于美国就业数据疲软，科技股业绩逊色，加上中东战争一触即发，市场对经济衰退和区域军事冲突的担忧引发避险情绪升温，加剧全球股市抛售潮。周一亚洲股市开盘后，日股“领衔”暴跌，以科技股为主的台湾和韩国股市遭遇重创，“血流成河”。

随后，卖压情绪快速蔓延到东南亚股市，大马与新加坡股市开市不久就跌破3%。


市场发生了什么事？

·日元兑美元激烈上涨，促使大量平仓日元套利，导致美股大跌

·交易员借入低利率的日元，转换成美元买美股

·日本央行提高利率，日元对美元大升值

·由于日元升值，借款人需付更高利息，同时面对巨大外汇损失

·大量平仓交易涌现，逼仓现象发生，投资者须卖资产，满足追加保证金的要求，加剧美股下跌

·中东战争持续升级

·美国政治不确定性，加剧恐惧和恐慌

中国报：

投资者担忧爆冷的美国非农就业报告，恐慌指数窜升逾25%，美股主要指数上周五（2日）收盘大幅走低，道琼斯工业指数大跌逾600点，纳斯达克指数陷入修正区间。

此外，哈马斯领袖哈尼亚遇袭身亡，伊朗和以色列的紧张局势再次升温，促使全球避险情绪高涨。

The Edge:

1. BOJ Surprise Tightening

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) surprised the world last Wednesday calling for a rate hike of 0.25% against a market consensus of 0.1% rise. The move to take the rate to its highest since 2008, from a policy rate of 0-0.1%.

Later the same day, the US released several negative economic data: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI dropping to an eight-month low in July at 46.8, against consensus of 48.8. Worse still, the higher than expected US unemployment claims of 249,000 against a forecast of 236,000 sparked worries of impending slowdown in the world’s largest economy.

The concerns of a slowing US economy coupled with the BOJ tightening led to an unwinding of Japanese yen carry trades and contributed to rampant selling of Japanese equities that started last Thursday (Aug 1).

2. Weak US Jobs Report

Recession fears were mounting after the US payroll report showed growth of merely 114,000, which came short of consensus’s 175,000 forecast while June figures were revised lower. The jobless rate also hit a three-year peak of 4.3%, above the 4.1% expected and triggered the Sahm’s Rule.

According to Sahm’s Rule, if the unemployment rate, based on a three-month average, is a half percentage point above its lowest point over the previous 12 months, the economy has tipped into a recession.

For context, Sahm Rule's accuracy rate is 100% going back to every recession since the early 1970s.

3. Poor US Tech Earnings

The poorly-received results of large names in the US tech sector did not help at all. Last Friday, Intel suffered its largest single day decline of 26% — the worst in more than 40 years after the company gave a grim growth forecast and laid out plans to slash 15,000 jobs.

Amazon shares tumbled 9% last Friday, a day after the company reported a revenue miss and gave a forecast for the third quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.

4. Warren Buffet's Cash Pile at Record High

Another drag to equity prices is filing reports about Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc that it had almost halved its stake in its largest holding, Apple Inc. The renowned investors had also cut its second largest holding — Bank of America Corp — raising its cash pile to a record US$276.9 billion (RM1.24 trillion). This had sparked speculation of concerns of an imminent market top.

5. Flare-ups in Geopolitics

Geopolitical anxiety and the expected retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah towards Israel after the killing of Hamas leader was another risk-off factor.